Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Only wideout routes are included (i.e., players aligned wide, in the slot or tight): How often a pass catcher runs a route can give us insight into strategy and tendencies at the league-wide, team and individual levels of the game. Follow Nick Shook on Twitter @TheNickShook. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. Perhaps its no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. His six drops were the 22nd most from wide receivers. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. 101st. Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. 2021 Allen 2021 Amendola 2021 Austin 2021 Beasley 2021 Benjamin 2021 Brown 2021 Cobb 2021 Goodwin 2021 Gordon 2021 Green 2021 Hilton 2021 Hogan 2021 Hopkins 2021 Jackson 2021 Jones 2021 Jones 2021 Roberts 2021 Sanders 2021 Sanu 2021 Slater 2021 Stills 2021 Woods 2021 Watkins 2021 Brown 2021 Adams . Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. The values corresponding to each route represent league averages over the last two seasons. Whats more impressive to me is that Tony Romo threw to Beasley on 26% of his routes, which is an extremely high figure. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. For wide receivers and tight ends, Open Score accounts for roughly half of the overall score, while Catch Score accounts for a little over a quarter and YAC Score accounts for the remainder. While Allen and Anderson finished below catch-rate expectation, Robinson shattered his, posting a mark of +37.9 percent and making it pretty easy to see who was best in this department. * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. The Chief's quarterback is not a particularly accurate thrower, but he helps his targets get open. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. There are always going to be outliers on both ends of the spectrum for every statistic and measurable. Brown's two touchdowns on in routes also tied for the most in the NFL, and while his catch rate above expectation wasn't the best (+12.8%, ranking 11th among receivers who were targeted at least five times on in routes), his league-leading yards per reception on such routes (27.4) cements his status as the top player in this category. Get used to seeing his name: Thomas is the top-ranked player in half of these categories. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. One number that does not carry that weight for wide receivers is yards after the catch. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. Only the Catch and YAC Scores are counted for targeted screen routes, because openness on those routes is due to play design far more than receiver ability. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Time Period. Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. For qualifying receivers, Open Score has a correlation coefficient of 0.61, where 1.0 would be perfect consistency and 0.0 would be no consistency at all. For the first time, these metrics provided a method to isolate and assess individual player performance in a consistent and objective way. In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. NFL. Advanced stats offer insight into a Wide Receiver's performance beyond the standard box score. We're referring to his productivity on post routes in 2019. Since 2017, the overall score correlates with Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value stat at 0.68, with EA Madden's player rating at 0.59 and Pro Football Focus' receiving grade at 0.76. We looked at every WR with 60+ targets* from 2020. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus has shown that the best receivers in the league earn their targets all over the field, so its no surprise to see familiar names in the deep-target SOE ranks. Danielr28 2 yr. ago. Sample size caveats here. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? Which QB makes the list? Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. Austin missed five games: weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, and then weeks 8 through ten against the Lions, Vikings, and Saints. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. As a result, Stills averaged just 1.29 yards per route run, a pretty unimpressive figure. This chart helps hammer that point home. Over the past decade, among all players with at least 250 snaps in a single season, raw targets had a 0.95 correlation to PPR fantasy points for wide receivers and that number sat at 0.96 for tight ends. But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. And the ultimate goal of every route is to create enough separation from a defender to earn a target and make a catch. He led the league lead in catch rate above expectation (actual catch percentage compared to expected catch percentage), but among the top 25 wide receivers in that category (minimum 50 targets), he's the only one who averaged fewer than 10 air yards per target (8.1). Targets En Route: Factoring in WR Routes Run & Finding Hidden Gems for How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? Parker went deep plenty in 2019, running 155 go routes and seeing 36 targets on those routes. And if it's not completed, he would be debited accordingly. Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. . The numbers that propelled Thomas to the top here were his yards, of course, but also his efficiency. Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. NFL.com's Nick Shook takes a look at the top receivers of 2019 by route type. He was close to unseating Thomas and very well could take the next major step in his third NFL season. The aforementioned play from last year's season opener came on a deep in route by Brown. . Who has the edge? Davis was immediately utilized, earning a 71.6-percent snap share with 454 routes run. Evaluating route types by advanced performance metrics can tell us which routes are the most valuable on a per-target basis, as you can see in the chart below. From the perspective of the receiver, however, he is a primary and direct influence on that very context. This makes it very easy for us to compare the two statistics: essentially, the question boils down to how valuable it is to know a receivers number of Targets per Route Run. Heres the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41). AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. Over the final 2.5 games of the year, Jernigan caught 19 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. To put that in perspective, he is currently the only player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average over 3.3 yards per route in a season (min. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. The Saints' WR1 gained 326 yards while running outs, the most in the NFL. Brown is always open, Kendrick Bourne is underrated, We created better pass-rusher and pass-blocker stats: How they work, Introducing new NFL run-blocking and run-stopping stats: How our metrics work. There isnt much evidence to support the idea that Mike Thomas is anything but an elite football talent. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. [2]While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); To predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run using Year N Yards per Route Run, the best fit formula is, N+1 YPRR = 0.843 + 0.474 * Yr N YPRR (R^2 = 0.21). Given the array of all 22 players' positions, directions and speeds, the model estimates the probability of a completion. Latest on Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. What are advanced WR stats? Think of it like this: CPOE measures the catching ability of a receiver, accounting for his ability to get open. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. Wide Receiver (WR) Stats 2022-2023 - Lineups These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. Among wide receivers (min. Thats where yards per route run comes into play. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. Best and worst receiver seasons on deep passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. To predict a receivers future yards per target, we use only 28% of his prior yards per target average. You don't currently have any notifications. 4. We've already provided a metrics-based breakdown of the best players at key positions this summer, but the geniuses at Next Gen Stats don't rest on their laurels. Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator. Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. Since the only difference between YPRR and Y/T is the metric targets per route run, its worth asking: is Targets Per Route Run a metric worth looking at? Woods led all qualifying receivers in yards per route . Cooper Kupp demonstrates some WR Drills to improve release, route running & creating separation in this edition of The Nike 11-Online Virtual Training Series. 300 routes run). If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. 2019 DVOA by Routes: Receivers | Football Outsiders Receiving stats on short passes for Jarvis Landry, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play, Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 air yards). 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. Brown such a special talent? AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability.